Horse Racing Systems December 20th, 2008 | horse racing systems | No Comments »
At the very outset of this blog I want to start by defining what I consider a Horse Racing System is. Basically it is set of rules or filters that help you to select a bet or lay. The alternative to using a system is to go through the morning paper and select your wagers using your own knowledge and preferences.
For instance you might like a particular jockey, trainer or horse and always follow them. That is fine and I suppose in a way that is a sort of system but it is flawed. It is very rare that backing all of a certain jockeys mounts or trainer’s runners will show you a profit. But even then you could have the making of a system. Some trainers and jockeys do particularly well at certain race courses or in certain types of races such as 2 year old maiden races. If statistically over 3 or 4 years a trainer has shown a regular profit when he had runners at a particular course this might be worth noting a nd incorporating into a system.
This kind of research can take time and quite frankly can be pretty boring and so most people go looking for a system off the shelf they can buy and use. There are no shortage of systems on the market but remember all that glitters is not necessarily gold. Many sellers offer impressive past results but unless these are backed up by some independent source such as Betting School I would treat them with caution. No matter how well proofed a system is I would always tend to “paper test” first before risking real money.
If you are planning on laying horse to lose on Betfair I would favour systems that concentrate on laying favourites. This is because when you lay favourites your liability is much lower than if you lay outsiders. Of course laying horse at big prices means that you will have many more successful wagers but when one of your selections does win it will give you a big liability.
A couple of months ago I investigated a very simple system to find favourites to lay. The basis of the system was to look for a short priced horse that according to the betting market had some real opposition, i.e. 2 other horse priced at less than 7/1. For a starter it was not a bad idea . Then I added a couple of further filters to this system. We know that favourites are much more successful in Non Handicap races so I added the proviso that I would only lay the selection in Handicap races. Also some horses run well on one type of ground or going but not on another. As a generalisation most horses run best on good to firm going but there are some “mudlarks” who perform much better on soft or heavy ground Given this I added a rule that the selection must not have never won on the going that day.
So as you can see it is quite easy to develop a system of your own if you do not want to purchase one of the many ready made systems that are on the market. Having devised your system you need to “paper test” it. This means that you go through the races and make your system selections and make a not of them but do not actually place money on them. To truly check a system you need to do this for 3 months before risking real cash but in practice most people will paper test for about a month or so. This should give you some idea of how effective your system is.
In this blog I shall be looking at a variety of commercial racing systems (i.e. those you have to pay for) and those that are in the public domain and freely available. If you wish to contribute and tell us al about systems you have tried or devised yourself feel free to contribute.